Mar 21, 2019

GDP growth at 4.5% in Q4 2018

Quick Update

  • According to the revised figures by Geostat, GDP growth stood at 4.5% YoY in Q4 2018 with the full year growth coming in at 4.7% - very solid performance taking into account contractionary fiscal stance and unfavorable developments in some region economies. In nominal terms, GDP went up by 6.9% in Q4 and by 8.5% in 2018.
  • Following slowdown in Q3 2018, GDP growth recovered to 4.5% in Q4 2018. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth stood at 2.6% - highest level over the last four years. However, along with the recovery in growth, low base effect also should be taken into account.
  • From the sectors perspective, hotels and restaurants (+16.1% YoY), transport and communications (+11.8% YoY), healthcare (+11.2% YoY) and real estate (+10.7% YoY) posted the highest growth rates. All other major sectors also increased with the exception of construction and utilities declining by 2.4% and 8.4% YoY, respectively.
  • Drop of the construction sector is mostly to be attributed to the finalization of the construction of BP’s SCPX project and some underperformance in the public infrastructure spending, while the construction of residential and non-residential buildings maintained solid growth. As for the utilities, the decline mostly reflects lower energy generation domestically replaced by higher imports.
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