Jun 3, 2019

GDP increased by 5.1% in April 2019

Quick Update

  • According to the initial estimates of GeoStat, real GDP growth remained strong at 5.1% YoY in April 2019. The growth averaged 4.8% YoY in the first four months of 2019.
  • In terms of sectors, transportation, trade, real estate and financial intermediation were predominantly driving the higher economic activity.
  • Decline in the construction sector persisted in April as well mostly explained by the finalization of the BP’s SCPX project. At the same time, public infrastructure construction maintains positive tendency along with the acceleration of the budget capital spending (see the note on fiscal).
  • External demand remained supportive with the exports, tourism and remittance inflows increasing by 31.9% YoY in the GEL terms in April. Measured in the EUR and the USD, inflows increased by 29.8% and 18.7% YoY, respectively. While imports growth has picked up, still the increase was weaker compared to what strong GDP growth would imply (see the notes on trade, remittances and tourism).
  • Unlike strong fiscal stimulus, credit growth continued to moderate especially in non-mortgage segment (see note on credit).
  • Estimated consumer sentiments1 somewhat weakened in April possibly reflecting the slower retail lending.
  • Following the sizeable FX interventions in Jan-Feb (see the note on interventions), the NBG has not intervened on the FX market in April and May 2019.

 

1. Based on ISET-PI’s, Consumer Confidence Index

 

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